Showing the numbers; Finding a meaning

By: Sabin | February 15th, 2007

To put a short point on things, I like soccer for two reasons: the philosophy and the analysis. In truth, it’s the analysis that leads to philosophy (or is it the other way ’round?). At any rate, today it’s about the analysis. I went back and tracked the win/loss/home/away record for the Revs since 2004, dropped the info into Excel. What I came up with was this image included here.

I wanted to carry on this little experiment to see if there was a rhyme or reason to the Revs and their home and away games. See, this year they play a huge chunk of their games over the summer at home, but start off mostly away and end the season alternating — one game after the other — home – away – home – away.

Worry set in, you see, because last season it seemed as though our saving grace was The Fort and Foxboro. When we needed a win, a home game appeared and gave it up. What would happen if we finished the season alternating back and forth? Well, if the data from the last three seasons can be believed or used as a litmus for 2007, I needn’t have worried.

The Revolution win or lose on something other than being home or away. At this point, I don’t know what the “something” is, but I’m determined to find out at some point.

Is there a magic formula? Do Steve Nicol’s size 13 boots factor in? What about Matt Reis’ gum chewing prowess? Does that fuel his Zen-like concentration and 1.09 GAA record? Or perhaps it’s Taylor Twellman’s uncanny ability to be offside at some of the most key moments of attack. Hopefully it’s not Clint Dempsey and his pull-up-my-socks-before-I-get-angry tactics. If it is, then look for Fulham to start climbing.

Whatever the magic of the Revolution may be, I intend to find it out. This record of their ascension through the ranks of MLS is just the beginning. I’ll be filling in the 2007 line as the season gets underway so we can all try to determine by mid-season whether it’s worth getting ready for the post-season.

It’s worth noting that even in 2004 — finishing with 35 points after a summer of loss after loss — the Revs made the playoffs. Given that, I’m inclined to think Nicol and his size thirteens have more to do with it than anything else.